Sunday’s contest at Fenway Park has the Boston Red Sox (76-78) going head to head against the Minnesota Twins (81-73) at 12:35 p.m. ET (on Sept. 22). Our computer prediction projects a close 5-4 victory for the Red Sox, so it should be a tight matchup.

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Twins vs. Red Sox Matchup Info

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Twins vs. Red Sox Predictions

  • Score Prediction: Red Sox 5, Twins 4
  • Total Prediction: Over 7.5 runs

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Twins vs. Red Sox Betting Lines

Twins vs Red Sox Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds
Twins -130 +110 7.5 +105 -125

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Twins Betting Insights

  • Minnesota has been the favorite in 104 games this season, and has come away with the win 63 times (60.6%) in those contests.
  • The Twins have a win-loss record of 44-28 when favored by -130 or better by sportsbooks this year.
  • Minnesota and its opponents have hit the over in 77 of 153 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • The Twins were the moneyline favorite for 10 of their past 15 games, and they finished 5-5 in those matchups.
  • In its past 15 matchups (all 15 of them had set totals), Minnesota and its opponents combined to hit the over six times.

Red Sox Betting Insights

  • Boston has been the underdog on the moneyline 73 total times this season. It has finished 33-40 in those games.
  • When they have played as a moneyline underdog with odds of +110 or longer, the Red Sox have a 15-22 record (winning 40.5% of their games).
  • Boston has played in 152 games with a set over/under, and it has combined with its opponents to go over the total 77 times (77-68-7).
  • The Red Sox have played as underdogs in seven of their past 15 games and won two of those contests.
  • Boston and its opponents have combined to hit the over five times in its past 15 games with a total.

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Twins vs. Red Sox Probable Pitchers

Twins’ Starting Pitcher: Pablo Lopez

  • The 28-year-old has pitched to a 3.84 ERA this season with 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 1.9 walks per nine across 30 games.
  • Pablo Lopez’s team is 17-7 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
  • Lopez’s team has an 18-12 record in his starts this season.
  • In Lopez’s 30 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over 16 times.

Red Sox’s Starting Pitcher: Nick Pivetta

  • The 31-year-old has put up an ERA of 4.37, with 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings in 25 games this season. Opponents are hitting .235 against him.
  • The Red Sox have a 4-5 record in Pivetta’s nine starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
  • Over Pivetta’s 24 starts, his team is 13-11.
  • Nick Pivetta has started 24 contests with a total set by sportsbooks this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in 10 of them.

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Twins’ 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 81-73
Home 42-33
Road 39-40
One-Run Games 22-20
Scoring 5+ Runs 56-12

Red Sox’s 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 76-78
Home 35-41
Road 41-37
One-Run Games 17-12
Scoring 5+ Runs 60-12

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