Monday’s game at PETCO Park has the San Diego Padres (85-65) taking on the Houston Astros (81-68) at 9:40 p.m. ET (on Sept. 16). Our computer prediction projects a close 5-4 victory for the Padres, so expect a tight matchup.

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Padres vs. Astros Matchup Info

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Padres vs. Astros Predictions

  • Score Prediction: Padres 5, Astros 4
  • Total Prediction: Over 7.5 runs

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Padres vs. Astros Betting Lines

Padres vs Astros Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds
Padres -125 +105 7.5 -115 -105

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Padres Betting Insights

  • San Diego has been the favorite in 93 games this season, and has come away with the win 53 times (57%) in those contests.
  • The Padres have a win-loss record of 41-31 when favored by -125 or better by bookmakers this year.
  • San Diego and its opponents have gone over in 80 of 150 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Padres were the moneyline favorite in 11 of their past 15 games, and they finished 7-4 in those matchups.
  • Over its past 15 outings (all had set totals), San Diego combined with its opponents to hit the over on the run total seven times.

Astros Betting Insights

  • Houston has won 18 of the 38 games it was the underdog on the moneyline this season (47.4%).
  • When playing as a moneyline underdog with odds of +105 or longer, the Astros have a 9-8 record (winning 52.9% of their games).
  • Houston has had an over/under set by bookmakers 149 times, and it has combined with opponents to go over the total in 61 of those games (61-82-6).
  • The Astros are not favored for the first time in quite a while, as they have not been an underdog in their past 15 games.
  • In its past 15 games with a total, Houston and its opponents have failed to hit the over seven times.

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Padres vs. Astros Probable Pitchers

Padres’ Starting Pitcher: Yu Darvish

  • The 38-year-old has pitched in 13 games this season with a 3.52 ERA and 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings with a batting average against of .233.
  • Yu Darvish’s team has won 66.7% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (4-2).
  • Darvish’s team is 9-4 when he starts this season.
  • In Darvish’s 13 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over 10 times.

Astros’ Starting Pitcher: Spencer Arrighetti

  • In 26 games this season, the 24-year-old has an ERA of 4.72, with 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are batting .249 against him.
  • The Astros have a 3-5 record in Arrighetti’s eight starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
  • Arrighetti’s team is 10-16 in his 26 starts.
  • Arrighetti’s starts hit the over on the run total 10 times in 26 games with a set total this season.

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Padres’ 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 85-65
Home 40-35
Road 45-30
One-Run Games 21-17
Scoring 5+ Runs 63-8

Astros’ 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 81-68
Home 42-32
Road 39-36
One-Run Games 15-26
Scoring 5+ Runs 62-9

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