No. 3-ranked Daniil Medvedev will face No. 6 Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semifinals of the ATP’s Erste Bank Open in Vienna, on Saturday, Oct. 29.
Medvedev is a heavy favorite, at -300 on the moneyline, with Tsitsipas listed as a +240 underdog. But are there reasons to believe Tsitsipas could pull an upset here?
Let’s take a look at the head-to-head matchup, some recent results, plus each player’s stats so far in this tournament with the help of Tennis IQ, the ATP’s new performance analytics platform.
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Head to Head
Medvedev and Tsitsipas have met 12 times on the ATP Tour, with Medvedev winning eight of those matchups.
Their most recent match was on May 8, 2023, in the Rome semifinals (on clay). Medvedev won in straight sets: 7-5, 7-5. That was their only clash so far in 2023.
They faced each other three times in 2022, all on hard courts, with Tsitsipas winning two of those three matches.
Recent Results
Medvedev has a match record of 63-14 in 2023, and has won five titles, including two ATP Masters 1000s: Rome (outdoor/clay) and Miami (outdoor/hard).
To reach the semifinals, Medvedev defeated Arthur Fils (6-4, 6-2), Grigor Dimitrov (3-6, 6-2, 6-4) and Karen Khachanov (6-3, 3-6, 6-3).
Tsitsipas is 48-20 this year, with one tournament victory: Los Cabos (outdoor/hard).
On his way to the semis, Tsitsipas has beaten Dominic Thiem (7-6, 6-4), Tomas Machac (6-3, 4-6, 7-5) and Borna Gojo (7-6, 7-5).
Advanced Stats
Tsitsipas has been the better player on serve so far in this tournament, with a serve quality rating of 8.9, compared to Medvedev at 8.4.
Medvedev has a higher return quality rating so far in Vienna — 8.6, compared to Tsitsipas at 7.6.
In terms of groundstrokes, Tsitsipas (8.7) has been better on the forehand side than Medvedev (8.3).
Medvedev (8.2) has performed better with his backhand than Tsitsipas (7.5).
Shot quality is calculated in real-time by analyzing each shot’s speed, spin, depth, width, and the impact it has on the opponent. The ATP Tour averages are: 7.9 (serve), 6.6 (return), 7.5 (forehand) and 7.1 (backhand).
